Carmen surf forecast

The free baseline uses NOAA GFS-Wave and GFS for offshore waves, swell, wind and gusts. When connected, Copernicus Marine MFWAM provides the finer wave model, with NOAA shown as a comparison and Copernicus ocean temperature separately. The source records below identify which models actually supplied this report. Attribution: NOAA/NCEP and, when present, EU Copernicus Marine Service and Météo-France.

Significant wave height is the modeled average height of the highest third of waves in open water. It is not the height of a breaking surf wave. Individual waves can be larger. NOAA waves use an approximately 16 km grid and wind approximately 27 km; the optional Copernicus grids are approximately 8 km. They cannot resolve individual reefs, shifting sandbanks or every sheltered cove. Nearby beaches can share a model cell. Period definitions differ by model and wave partition.

The lighter-wind suggestion compares consecutive two-hour daylight periods in the next three days. It prefers light or offshore wind and withholds suggestions for missing wave or wind inputs, stronger wind or gusts, stale data, or substantial disagreement when two wave models are available. NOAA does not supply a thunderstorm assessment here; missing storm and comparison information is stated beside each suggestion. Offshore directions use approximate mapped coastal orientation. This is an editorial wind filter, not a calibrated surf-quality score or safety recommendation.

Collection is checked every 30 minutes. A new NOAA cycle downloads gradually within the provider's request limits, while the previous forecast remains available. NOAA model cycles are cached and reused; assembling a report does not mean a new model run. A report older than 90 minutes is marked delayed and receives no window suggestions. After six hours it is withheld. NOAA provides native hourly samples through forecast hour 120 and three-hour samples later. Values between model samples are interpolated, with conservative gust interpolation. Initialization times are shown only when the provider explicitly supplies them.

Tides: verified local tide predictions are not connected. We have removed inferred tide phases and exact high/low times from these reports. Consult UCR's MIO-CIMAR tide predictions and confirm the appropriate station and local differences. Tide times from another port cannot be treated as exact Santa Teresa tides.

No beach observations, calibrated breaking-wave model, rip-current detection or live lifeguard report are connected. Check conditions at the beach, local warnings and your own ability. Read the surf safety guide.